Estimated population of Middle Earth

[Greyaxe]

What would the popultation be of middle earth at the end of the third age including the lands to the east?

[araquael]

Uhm, figure a population similar to 5th or 6th century Europe for the west (representing declining gondor, and a lot of smaller tribes moving about.

The population is probably in general decline.

The eastern world? I have no idea. Probably more populous and stable, but consider the factor of having Sauron's forces keeping the population in check. So perhaps population controls, institutionalised slavery and conscription to keep the population from getting too big to keep quiet?

Gavin

[Greyaxe]

I have been researching the second roman era which places most of Europe under Roman control approximately 5th or 6th century but cant find any statistics on estimated populations.  Do you think and estimated population of 4-5 million for Europe too much? Or too little?

[joeman]

At the time of Charlemagne (arguably a model for the Return of the King), the population of Western Europe was around 25 to 30 million - with at least half of these being in Carolingian France (Gaul plus some).  By the 14th century, just before the Black Death, Europe was up to (some say) near 100 million.

[Greyaxe]

Wow upwards of 100 million for Europe alone.  Sweet thanks.  I think ill base the enitre population of middle earth on that estimate including the regions to the east.

[Turambar]

I don't have an answer for you, but I'll gladly point you to some great resources :

Other Hands issues 3/4...three articles between the two issues concerning the population of Gondor and Arnor. Can be downloaded at Merp.com.

Michael Martinez essays...many available at suite101.com as well as Merp.com. Two in particular:
http://www.sf-worlds.com/middle-earth/where-did-everyone-live.html
http://www.sf-worlds.com/middle-earth/middle-earth-populations.html

Jeremy Baker's Tower Hills website has a page on Demography & Economics of Middle Earth:
http://homepage.mac.com/jeremybaker/towerhills/demoecon.html

Finally, Thomas Morwinsky's essays on Eriadoran population...available through the Yahoo Fan Modules group (my links to Thomas' website no longer work):
http://games.groups.yahoo.com/group/fan-modules/

That should fuel your thinking for a while ,
Jason

[Greyaxe]

Thanks Turmabar, some good reading in there.  Given the info is some of the essays 100 million is far too many.  Ill have to rethink the numbers.

[joeman]

100 million is definitely too many - that was just before the Black Plague.

It's more likely, as was said above, that Middle-earth in the late Third Age was more analagous to Europe at the time of Charlemagne - so, more like 25 or 30 million.  Though I doubt Tolkien delved to heavily into demographics. 

[ThackeG67]

Hmmm...I agree with this,,I think 100M is just too many..maybe half of it would be possible.